Challenger Spaceship "Survivors" Pop Culture Analysis ChallangerConspiracy TheoriesStatistics
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Deception Detective 639 posts deceptiondetective Deception Detective 639 posts
deceptiondetective
One of my subscribers recently tagged me in this viral post about the Challenger astronauts allegedly surviving the crash. According to the comments on the post, many people believe there's sound science behind this. 
 
Of course, this seems to be a simple case of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, which I've discussed in a previous McCann's video. It's the same fallacy that led Scotland Yard to suspect Christian B. in the Madeleine McCann case. Here's the clip where I explain what it is:
 
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kerriberri (Desert Moon) Patron 837 posts
kerriberri (Desert Moon)
There's no way anyone survived that. I remember when that happened and it was completely devastating. 
"...But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you." - Bryan Mills (Liam Neeson), Taken
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Davey Jones Detective 272 posts
Davey Jones
there is evidence of controls being used after the explosion.
 
but then there is also evidence of the occupants of challenger still being alive.
[edit] beyond the statistical.
Nessun Dorma
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Davey Jones Detective 272 posts
Davey Jones
There's no way anyone survived that. I remember when that happened and it was completely devastating. 
the contention here is that these people were never on the flight to begin with,
 
and there is indeed some logic behind the notion.
apparently there are interesting connections between the crew of challenger and the crew of colombia,
and between the astronauts and their dopplegangers.
including one situation with an astronaut who had a twin brother of which little evidence can be found
that shows up exactly when the astronaut supposedly died, and at least 1 crew member that seems
to show up in both challenger and colombia.
 
there are those who believe that the entire space program is a stage production.
and while i don't subscribe to that notion, i can't help but wonder at the opportunities for embezzlement...
 
if we are going to analyze statements, i am more interested in a conversation between
engineer Bob Ebeling and the Thiokol executives he tried to warn the morning of the launch.
 
Nessun Dorma
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kerriberri (Desert Moon) Patron 837 posts
kerriberri (Desert Moon)
Yes, but they found pieces of commingled remains among the wreckage. 🤷
"...But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you." - Bryan Mills (Liam Neeson), Taken
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deceptiondetective Deception Detective 639 posts
deceptiondetective
It all boils down to likelihoods: 
 
A.) Conspiracy to fool Americans (?) and the participants didn't even change their names to ensure it wouldn't be discovered; 
B.) In a country of millions, some people share generic names and ages. 
 
The other issue, of course, is the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: 
 
It would be different if the conspiracy theorist came up with a hypothesis why the accident would've been staged, and then sought out the survivors (e.g., painting a target an then shooting at it to test his accuracy). Instead, he appears to have worked backwards by looking for the names first and then crafting an ad hoc hypothesis (i.e., shooting hundreds of bullets at a barn wall and then painting a target around an area where the bullets clustered). It's simply bad science. 
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Davey Jones Detective 272 posts
Davey Jones

dude, that's not investigating, that's 'explaining away'.

also 'bad science'.

 

like i already indicated: the 'coincidences' go well beyond simple resemblances.

i know it's tempting to find some comfortable solution and move on, but if you do you will come away with an assumption, not the truth.

 

It all boils down to likelihoods: 
 
A.) Conspiracy to fool Americans (?) and the participants didn't even change their names to ensure it wouldn't be discovered; 
B.) In a country of millions, some people share generic names and ages. 
 
The other issue, of course, is the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: 
 
It would be different if the conspiracy theorist came up with a hypothesis why the accident would've been staged, and then sought out the survivors (e.g., painting a target an then shooting at it to test his accuracy). Instead, he appears to have worked backwards by looking for the names first and then crafting an ad hoc hypothesis (i.e., shooting hundreds of bullets at a barn wall and then painting a target around an area where the bullets clustered). It's simply bad science. 
 
in order for your argument to hold you have to demonstrate at the very least 1 instance of another case with similar
'coincidences' in a similarly constrained context and in similar numbers that are not the result of attempts at deception.
 
 
as for likelihoods:
what do you think is more likely?:
1: nasa is running a global conspiracy to convince people we are being visited by aliens
2: we are being visited by aliens
 
so what does that say about the odds of them lying about dead astronauts?
 
also your fallacy does not apply;
nobody is shooting at a barn, this information is coming entirely from looking at
astronauts and nothing else.
we are not looking at all of america and coming up with people resembling astronauts,
we are just looking at astronauts, and finding ridiculous coincidences between them.
 
how many people in america are astronauts?
what does that tell us about the odds?
Nessun Dorma
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